Sustainable Asset Valuation of Mangroves and Wetlands for Coastal Resilience in Mozambique

Mozambique’s long coastline makes the country especially vulnerable to cyclones, floods, storm surges, and saltwater intrusion. These risks are escalating with climate change and are compounded by deforestation, urban expansion, and unsustainable farming, which have degraded the ecosystems that naturally protect coastal communities. Cyclone Idai in 2019 demonstrated the scale of the threat, causing hundreds of deaths and nearly a billion dollars in damages. 

To reduce these risks, the Government of Mozambique, supported by UNEP, is preparing a proposal to the Green Climate Fund to invest in ecosystem-based adaptation. The plan focuses on restoring and conserving mangroves and wetlands in three estuaries: Bons Sinais, Zambezi, and Limpopo. Specifically, it includes the restoration of 7,500 hectares of wetlands, 3,800 hectares of mangroves, and the conservation of 30,000 hectares of coastal ecosystems. These measures would directly benefit more than 200,000 people in nearby towns and districts, while over 1 million people across the three estuarine regions would gain indirect protection and co-benefits. 

The interventions are designed to act as natural buffers against floods and storm surges, improve water quality, and reduce saline intrusion into freshwater systems and farmland. They also sustain fisheries, provide timber and other resources, and create jobs through restoration and conservation activities. By protecting critical habitats, the interventions further support biodiversity and enhance opportunities for tourism. 

The NBI Centre conducted an integrated cost–benefit analysis using the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) methodology. The assessment confirms that the benefits of the suggested NBI investments far outweigh the costs across all tested scenarios. Even under conservative assumptions, avoided flood damages and improved fisheries generate positive net returns. Under more optimistic scenarios, every dollar invested delivers up to 14 dollars in economic, social, and environmental benefits, generating discounted net benefits of up to USD 537.5 million. The analysis also shows that the Limpopo estuary delivers the highest returns due to the large number of people exposed to flooding and saline intrusion, while Bons Sinais and Zambezi provide significant but more moderate gains. 

These findings strongly support scaling up mangrove and wetland restoration as part of Mozambique’s National Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategy and the Master Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction. Investing in nature-based infrastructure not only reduces disaster risk today but also builds long-term resilience for coastal communities facing more severe climate impacts in the decades ahead.